Box Office

2018 Box Office Predictions

As we put 2017 in the rearview mirror, a year full of big hits but many box office bombs, we look ahead to 2018. It appears that tentpoles and blockbusters will again dominate ticket sales and conversations so just as I did last year I thought it would be fun to predict some of the biggest potential films of 2018, at least box office-wise.

So here are 10 of the films I am most interested in as we enter the first week of 2018 (in order of release), as well as how I think the films will do worldwide and what could go right/wrong.

  1. Black Panther (February 16)

What Could Go Right:

The trailers have gotten audiences very excited, the African-American community is thrilled to have a predominantly black mainstream superhero film and Marvel could put their name on a two hour video of grass growing and it would still make money.

What Could Go Wrong:

Foreign markets (namely China) don’t embrace the diverse cast like America does.

Prediction: $910 million


  1. Avengers: Infinity War (April 27)

What Could Go Right:

Marvel, early-summer release date, “Avengers” in the title…

What Could Go Wrong:

I mean not much, unless Marvel fatigue suddenly kicks in.

Prediction: $1.5 billion


8. Deadpool 2 (May 18)

What Could Go Right:

People love the first one and the teaser trailer reinvigorated the interest in it. Ryan Reynolds’ star has only grown brighter since 2016 and instead of in the cold month of February this is getting a prime summer release date.

What Could Go Wrong:

Reynolds and company can’t capture lightning in a bottle twice and this becomes too self-deprecating, messy and vulgar for its own good.

Prediction: $770 million


7. Solo: A Star Wars Story (May 25)

What Could Go Right:

People love Star Wars and the first spin-off film “Rogue One” made $1.05 billion in December 2016. Plus it is getting a Memorial Day weekend release, which helps no matter what.

What Could Go Wrong:

No one really asked for this movie and it has had a very troubled production, including its original directors getting fired with just several weeks remaining in initial production. Also after the mixed(?) reception to “The Last Jedi” fans may be a little more skeptical towards the Disney brand of the franchise.

Prediction: $950 million


  1. The Incredibles 2 (June 15)

What Could Go Right:

Pixar’s brand and their classic June release date will help but the fact that this is a kid’s film that will equally attract nostalgic teens and 20-somethings is the real seller. The original film made $633 million in 2004 and Pixar’s last “revisit” “Finding Dory” made $1.028 billion in 2016.

What Could Go Wrong:

It doesn’t capture the fun and magic of the first film and the older crowds don’t show up as much as their tweets and memes about the film imply.

Prediction: $1.03 billion


  1. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (June 22)

What Could Go Right:

No one expected the first “Jurassic World” to gross $1.67 billion or set the record for biggest opening weekend, but it did just those things. People love their big summer blockbusters and Chris Pratt remains one of the best leading men in Hollywood. Plus, Jeff Goldblum is back doing his Jeff Goldblum thing.

What Could Go Wrong:

After its release, the public opinion for the first film has soured a bit (I standby that it was one of 2015’s better films) so some audience members may not be interested in revisiting Isla Nublar. Also the film is written by Derek Connolly and Colin Trevorrow and one of the biggest complaints about the first film was its script, so. Take that for what it’s worth.

Prediction: $1.25 billion

  1. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (July 27)

What Could Go Right:

The “Mission: Impossible” films have been a constant at the box office for 22(!) years and show no signs of slowing down. Despite 2017 not being Tom Cruise’s best year (“The Mummy” bombed and “American Made” only performed average in the States), his star worldwide remains bright and Superman Henry Cavill joining the cast should aid appeal, too. The past two “M:I” films have both grossed over $680 million.

What Could Go Wrong:

The film could really suffer from franchise fatigue and get buried in the blockbuster-filled summer.

Prediction: $682 million


  1. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (November 16)

What Could Go Right:

Harry Potter fans are some of the most dedicated ones out there and the cast for this, including Eddie Redmayne, Johnny Depp, Jude Law as young Dumbledore and Ezra Miller coming off stealing the show in “Justice League,” should help sell it to everyone else. The first film made $814 million and again coming out around Thanksgiving will aid it.

What Could Go Wrong:

Some people weren’t wowed by the first film (it’s fine enough) and the announcement that this is now a five-film series rubbed some fans and casual filmgoers alike the wrong way.

Prediction: $810 million


  1. Aquaman (December 21)

What Could Go Right:

Some liked Jason Momoa’s surfer bro take on the character and there are (a select few) people who haven’t given up faith on the DC Extended Universe yet. Plus this coming out over a year after “Justice League” so it may give some fans who felt hurt and betrayed by that film’s awfulness a chance to exhale and learn to love again. The Christmas release date never hurts, either.

What Could Go Wrong:

Some didn’t like Jason Momoa’s surfer bro take on the character and there are (many) people who have given up faith on the DC Extended Universe. Coming out a week after “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” and alongside “Bumblebee” doesn’t help, as this is going to have a lot of competition for its male teen demo.

Prediction: $580 million


  1. Bumblebee (December 21)

What Could Go Right:

People need something to see over the Christmas holiday and everything else is sold out, John Cena draws some curious fans and the fact Michael Bay isn’t directing may make some people give it the benefit of the doubt.

What Could Go Wrong:

A lot. “Transformers: The Last Knight” opened to just $44 million this past June and crawled its way to $130 million stateside, the lowest of the series by $115 million. It didn’t fare any better outside North America, underperforming in China and only making $605 million worldwide (also the lowest mark of the franchise by over $100 million). People just don’t care about this series anymore and interest will only continue to decrease with every passing film Paramount shoves down our throats.

Prediction: $430 million


4 thoughts on “2018 Box Office Predictions

  1. Pretty good predictions, there are a few films on your list that could potentially get higher. But I just about agree with everything on your list in terms of how they’ll rank in box office gross.


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