95th Academy Awards: Who Could, Should, Will Win

It’s once again time for the Super Bowl for movie fans, the Academy Awards. This year’s race has been closer in multiple categories than in recent memory, and it’s made the awards season all the more enjoyable. I’m bound to get some (or all) of these wrong, but here are my best guesses on how the night’s biggest awards will shape up. For my full thoughts on the nominees, click here.


The slate of Best Picture nominees may not be the best of all-time, but it is certainly the most diverse, blending crowd-pleasing blockbusters (“Top Gun: Maverick” and “Avatar: The Way of Water”), international (“All Quiet on the Western Front” and “Triangle of Sadness”), and typical “Oscar films” (“Women Talking,” The Banshees of Inisherin,” and “Tár”). However they also got a little weird, with “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” a film that premiered nearly a year ago and went from “this quirky A24 film” to Oscar favorite. It will likely take home both the biggest and the most awards on Oscar night, but if there is going to be an upset, watch for it to be BAFTA dominator “All Quiet,” with the savior of theaters “Top Gun” being a (very pitch black) darkhorse.

WILL WIN: “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

COULD WIN: “All Quiet on the Western Front”

SHOULD WIN: “Top Gun: Maverick”

Everything Everywhere All at Once


This is pretty much a lock for Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (known as The Daniels) for “Everything Everywhere,” a film that is so busy and wild it needed a director(s) that knew what they were doing to control it all. If they were to lose, the next man up would likely be Martin McDonagh for “Banshees” or maybe Steven Spielberg for his (“not”) biopic “The Fabelmans,” but I think this is EEAAO’s second most likely lock of the night (my vote would go to Todd Field for “Tár,” upon a rewatch he is so cold but realistic in his handling of that film).

WILL WIN: The Daniels, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

COULD WIN: Martin McDonagh, “The Banshees of Inisherin”

SHOULD WIN: Todd Field, “Tár”

The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once


Now we get into the unpredictable. For the longest time it seemed Austin Butler would run away with the award for his role as The King in “Elvis,” but Brendan Fraser has been right there for his comeback tour in “The Whale.” They’ve split awards all season (with Colin Farrell also winning a Golden Globe), but since I have to pick one of them I’m leaning Butler since his film is more accessible and up for Best Picture, historically a boost in the acting categories. Watch for whatever wins Makeup and Hairstyling earlier in the evening to be a precursor for who wins here.

WILL WIN: Austin Butler, “Elvis”

COULD WIN: Brendan Fraser, “The Whale”

SHOULD WIN: Colin Farrell, “The Banshees of Inisherin”

Austin Butler, Elvis


It’s a two horse race, but those two horses have been in a dead-heat the entire season. If Michelle Yeoh wins (in her first career nomination for “EEAAO”), she will be the first Asian woman to ever win the award. But Cate Blanchett (who has all but begged voters to not vote for her and instead share the love with Michelle) is just as likely to take home her third statue for her work in “Tár.” I have sided with Yeoh all season, but I’m making an 11th hour change and think the Academy rewards Blanchett for what many call the best performance of her career. But this one is a true coin flip.

WILL WIN: Cate Blanchett, “Tár”

COULD WIN: Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

SHOULD WIN: Cate Blanchett

Cate Blanchett, Tár


It will be Ke Huy Quan, who has won nearly every award (save the BAFTA, which went to “Banshee’s” Barry Keoghan) and has a great comeback story to support his stock. Mark it down, move on.

WILL WIN: Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

COULD WIN: Barry Keoghan, “The Banshees of Inisherin”

SHOULD WIN: Brendan Gleeson, “The Banshees of Inisherin”

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once


The absolute most bonkers, unpredictable race of the whole show. At the start of the season, it seemed like Angela Bassett was going to sweep for her work in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” then Kerry Condon won the BAFTA for “Banshees” and we thought maybe she could upset. But in the past few weeks Jamie Lee Curtis has won the Screen Actors Guild and thrown the whole thing into flux. Truly any four of the five ladies could win (except Hong Chau, who I love, is operating off the “it’s an honor just to be nominated” mentality), but it looks like it will be either Bassett or Curtis. A win by either would be viewed by many more as a career win than for their specific films (voters have admitted as much in secret ballots). I’ll lean Bassett because voters may want to share the love with “Wakanda Forever” since “EEAAO” is likely to win 5+ awards on the night, but Troy Kotsur (last year’s Best Supporting Actor) saying any name won’t shock me. The only thing is won’t be surprising is that it’ll be a surprise.

WILL WIN: Angela Bassett, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”

COULD WIN: Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

SHOULD WIN: Kerry Condon, “The Banshees of Inisherin”

Angela Bassett, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”

There you have it, hopefully I can help you win your Oscar pools (or I horribly sabotaged you, in which case I apologize). It is sure to be an absolute wild night at the Oscars, and I for one can’t wait!

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