While this year’s Oscar slate isn’t as great as last’s (to be fair, that is an unfair high bar), the awards show itself should be more interesting, with the winners not seemingly locked headed into Sunday. Several of the Best Picture nominees appeared on my year-end Top 10 (though my #1 “Challengers” was snubbed across the board), and at this point it seems like we are safe from “Emilia Perez,” one of the worst films to ever be nominated at the Oscars (barely hyperbole), taking home the big prize. 

So what will? Let’s break it down, taking a look at what should, could, and will win the big awards.

Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked

Should Win: The Brutalist

Could Win: Anora

Will Win: Conclave

As much as I love “Oppenheimer,” we went into last year’s show knowing it would win Best Picture. Going into Sunday, it’s looking like a two-horse race (with chances for a dark horse). While “Emilia Perez” got 13 nominations and seemed like the de facto winner for much of awards season, its hopes imploded when its titular star Karla Sofía Gascón had old racist, ableist, and (ironically) anti-Oscar tweets resurface. “Emilia Perez” had no business being nominated for any awards, much less being in the conversation for the best movie of 2024, so I and many other people in the film community are not losing sleep. Because of the fallout, the Best Film wins have been split between “Conclave” (SAG and BAFTA) and “Anora” (DGA, PGA, and CCA; also notable because it was the only awards the Critics gave it at the show). I personally think “Conclave” will win on Sunday, it has won the two shows with bigger voting bodies and plays better on the Academy’s preferential ballot, but if you want to place bets “Anora” has a statistical edge. Also can’t count out “The Brutalist,” which won at the Golden Globes, or “A Complete Unknown,” which has industry support and earned a surprise Director nomination over “Conclave,” usually a sign of Picture strength (only six films in the Academy’s 97 years have won Best Picture without a Director nomination, though one of them was just three years ago with “CODA” and two others, “Green Book” and “Argo,” are in the last 12 years, too). I have ridden with “Conclave” as my Best Pic prediction since October, and I’m going down with that ship.

Best Director
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

Should Win: Brady Corbet

Could Win: Brady Corbet

Will Win: Sean Baker

Lots of people made a stink when “Dune: Part Two” director Denis Villeneuve was not nominated (again), and I will argue “Challengers'” Luca Guadagnino deserved a look. But that’s neither here nor there. The race is likely between “Brutalist’s” Brady Corbet and “Anora’s” Sean Baker, with Baker having won at DGA, a typical indicator. We could see a 2021 situation play out, where just like “Power of the Dog” the only win “Brutalist” earns is a symbolic Director, but I think it wins elsewhere and Baker ends up taking home the trophy.

Best Actor

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Should Win: Colman Domingo

Could Win: Adrien Brody

Will Win: Timothée Chalamet

I truly cherish this lineup. I think Colman Domingo was a devastating force in the under-appreciated “Sing Sing” (criminally snubbed for Best Picture), and absolutely adore that Sebastian Stan snuck in for his work as Donald Trump in “The Apprentice.” Ralph Fiennes is also good in “Conclave,” but this race comes down between Adrien Brody and Timothée Chalamet. Brody won the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and BAFTA, but even though Oscar voting had closed, Chalamet’s win at SAG last weekend showed he has a large amount of industry support (and we know how much the Academy loves a biopic performance). While I think Brody gave the better performance, Timmy is a force to be reckoned with and will be for years to come, and I think his work on the campaign trail, complete with a stop at SNL, will get him over the top.

Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

Should Win: Fernanda Torres

Could Win: Mikey Madison

Will Win: Demi Moore

Karla Sofía Gascón was never going to win Best Actress (one can even argue the legitimacy of her nomination), but her odds went from 1% to less than zero after Tweetgate. This is pretty much between Demi Moore for “The Substance” and Mikey Madison for “Anora,” with “I’m Still Here’s” Fernanda Torres as a (very) dark horse. Torres was an upset win at the Golden Globes for Drama and has international support, but most of this season has been Moore (Comedy/Musical Globe, Critics Choice, SAG) and Madison (BAFTA) duking it out. While the Academy tends to favor younger actresses over seasoned vets, I think Moore, in a role all about getting aged and pushed out of Hollywood, has said the right things during her speeches to make it over the finish line, and her win would be open doors for horror at the Academy, a category they notoriously overlook.

Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Should Win: Edward Norton

Could Win: Edward Norton

Will Win: Kieran Culkin

It’s going to be Culkin.

Best Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Should Win: Ariana Grande

Could Win: Ariana Grande

Will Win: Zoe Saldaña

It was thought that maybe the “Emilia Perez” drama would cost everyone from that film up and down the ballot a win, but since then Saldaña has managed to win at BAFTA and SAG, so it appears she will be able to weather the storm. Ariana Grande or Isabella Rossellini would be far more deserving wins for their respective comedic and quiet supporting work in “Wicked” and “Conclave,” and if either of those films pull an upset or two en route to a Best Picture win then we could see it happen, but Saldaña has won most every supporting award this season (for an arguably lead performance) so no reason to think she suddenly stops.

Best Original Screenplay
Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
September 5
The Substance

Should Win: A Real Pain

Could Win: The Substance

Will Win: Anora

One of the most interesting and impossible to predict races of the show. “Anora” (WGA), “A Real Pain” (BAFTA), and “The Substance” (Critics Choice) have all won major awards, and “Brutalist” is a threat in any category it is nominated in. Historically, the Screenplay categories are given to a film that voters want to reward knowing it likely won’t win in any other cats (“American Fiction” and “Anatomy of a Fall” each won last year), so by that logic our winner would be “September 5,” though that is unlikely to happen since this is the only place it is nominated all show. I think “Anora” has the edge, if only because a Culkin win for “Real Pain” feels assured and “Substance” could win for either Moore or Best Makeup, which could give Sean Baker the first of a possible several wins of his night; but no winner here would honestly surprise me.

Best Adapted Screenplay

A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing

Should Win: Conclave

Could Win: Nickel Boys

Will Win: Conclave

The “‘Mean Girls’ with popes” film is almost all but assured to take home the trophy, which would make it a rarity since the last time the winner of the Best Adapted Screenplay was not the respective film’s director was 2017’s James Ivory for “Call Me by Your Name.” If “Conclave” doesn’t win, then look for “Nickel Boys,” a way to award a film that only otherwise has a Best Picture nomination, or “Sing Sing,” to make up for its Picture snub. But in all likelihood, it’s gonna be “Conclave.”

Other Predictions:

Best Animated Feature: Flow

Best Documentary Feature: No Other Land

Best International Feature: I’m Still Here

Best Original Score: The Brutalist

Best Original Song: “El Mal” (Emilia Perez) (*though if votes among Perez’s two nominees are split or the controversy knocks them out, give me Six Triple Eight’s “The Journey”) 

Best Visual Effects: Dune: Part Two

Best Cinematography: Nosferatu

Best Production Design: Wicked

Best Costumes: Wicked

Best Film Editing: Conclave

Best Sound: Dune: Part Two

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Substance